Kazakhstan holds an estimated 30 billion barrels of oil reserves and is among the top 15 countries based on the size of its oil reserves. Kazakhstan is also one of the world's largest producer of uranium. As the ninth largest country in the world in terms of territory, with the population of around 18 million, Kazakhstan's biggest potential lies in its spread of mineral reserves, including iron ore, chromium, manganese and gold.
The Central Asian stateis also among the top ten producers of carbon, coal, iron and gold. Kazakhstan has 11% of the world's oil and natural gas reserves, and 10.3% of its GDP is represented by the agricultural activity, as the country is one of the top ten wheat exporting countries. Apart from wheat, gas and oil, the former Soviet republic is also famous for exporting diamonds.
In the era of global robbery of countries' natural resources, where the United States openly exploits Syria's oil, all these parameters make Kazakhstan a perfect target for world major powers in their hunt for energy. Even though the U.S. has certain influence in Nur-Sultan, formerly known as Astana, Kazakhstan is still in Russia's and China's geopolitical orbit, which is natural due to its geographic position. It shares its border with the two giants, as well as with Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.
Some geopolitical analysts believe that the Kazakh territory is the security buffer of Central Asia. From the purely military perspective, Kazakhstan is still in Russia's sphere of influence, as it is part of the Russian dominated Collective Security Treaty Organisation. There are seven large Russian military bases in Kazakhstan, including Baikonur Cosmodrome. The total area leased by Russia in Kazakhstan is more than 11 million hectares. It is worth mentioning that the largest Russian military facilities in the Commonwealth of Independent States are located in Kazakhstan.
The Former Soviet republic is part of a Russian speaking sphere, and one-third of Kazakh citizens are ethnic Russians. Also, Russian cultural influence in the country is still relatively strong, in spite of the government's obvious pull away from Russia in an effort to establish Kazakhstan's own national identity.
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| Astana, Kazakhstan |
In 2017, the then Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev signed a decree to change the existing Kazakh Cyrllic alphabet to a Latin-based script by 2025. In the long term, Russia might lose its cultural influence in Kazakhstan, but presently Moscow remains an actor who cannot be avoided.
China's political influence in Kazakhstan is still minimal, and the Kazakh society has very little in common with the Chinese culture. On the other hand, Kazakhstan is a very important country for Beijing's economic ambitions. It is a key transportation belt to get Chinese products to markets in Europe, as five railway routes and six international highways pass through Kazakhstan, connecting China and other Asian countries with Europe and the Middle East.
The bilateral relationship between the two countries has significant perks for China, notably its need for access to Kazakh resources. For Kazakhstan, China is a much needed source of capital to help develop the country. According to Kazakh officials, China has invested about $20 billion in Kazakhstan over the years of independence. In spite of that, there is a growing anti-Chinese sentiment in Kazakhstan, followed by occasional protests against Chinese investments in the Central Asian state.
Some analysts fear that the country's sovereignty could be eroded, as it risks becoming overwhelmed by Chinese economic influence. However, the government in Nur-Sultan is keen to benefit from China's emerging Belt and Road Initiative, or the so called New Silk Road.
According to Alexander Gabuev, a senior fellow and chair of the Russia in the Asia Pacific Programme at the Carnegie Moscow Centre, new Kazakh authorities want to maintain a very strong economic relationship with China because that is beneficial and that is the future. However, since Russia dominated Eurasian Economic Union is so far has not offered an economic alternative to China's Belt and Road Initiative, Kazakhstan's economy is gradually gravitating towards China.
Kazakh and Chinese authorities recently built a 5.3-square-Km shopping zone, formally called the Khorgos International Centre of Cross-Border Cooperation, which serves as an important gateway on China's New Silk Road. Beijing is undoubtedly interested in Kazakhstan's natural resources.
According to Ardak Kasymbek, managing director of Kazakhstan's state energy company, KazMunyGas, Kazakhstan has given China control of up to 30% of all oil extraction as of April 2016. When it comes to the oil export to the West, the primary outlet for Kazakh fossil fuels has been a pipeline to the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk.
Unlike most other major producers, Kazakhstan is considered a landlocked country. It is because the Caspian Sea is actually an endorheic basin, while The Aral Sea is not a sea anymore, as it is rapidly losing its water.
Nur-Sultan Nazarbayev's decision to resign the presidency back in March was shocking to many in Kazakhstan. During his 30 year rule, Kazakhstan has adopted a multi-dimensional foreign policy aimed to protect the country's relative independence.
The Kazakhstan government did not try to antagonise Beijing, Moscow, and Washington, but rather sought to profit from befriending all of them. Its foreign policy is multi vectorial, looking after the interests of Russia and China on one hand, and the United States and the European Union on the other hand. At the same time, Kazakhstan has so far been successfully balancing between Russia and China. It is expected that the new President Kassym Jomart Tokayev won't make any major shifts in his foreign policy. He was Kazakhstan's foreign affairs minister from 1994 to 1999 and then again from 2002 to 2007.
Some analysts think that Tokayev is the ideal candidate for maintaining the status quo. As a former foreign minister, he has experience with both Russia and China. He studied diplomacy at the Moscow State Institute of Foreign Relations during the Soviet era and later studied linguistics in China. His first trip abroad after taking power in March this year was to Moscow where he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin. That visit can be interpreted as a clear sign of continuation of former President Nursultan Nazarbayev's foreign policy, which is all about balance.
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